Conservative
€51k
Does not cover costs within three years: the stop-or-change case.
- Ticket volume, year 3
- €446k
- Evenings, year 3
- 1,377
- Venues · organizers, month 12
- 10 · 15
- Venues · organizers, year 3
- 27 · 41
FINANCIALS · THREE SCENARIOS
Three honest scenarios.
One clear gate.
We model Berlin from the product’s live pricing and the orchestration levers. Year one ramps from zero and runs on beta pricing for six months. Nothing here is a forecast: the pilot exists to replace these assumptions with measured ones.
THE SCENARIOS AT A GLANCE
Platform revenue in year three,
and when it covers costs.
Base
€350k
Revenue covers operating costs in year 3.
- Ticket volume, year 3
- €2.8M
- Evenings, year 3
- 6,019
- Venues · organizers, month 12
- 20 · 30
- Venues · organizers, year 3
- 84 · 125
Upside
€1.6M
Revenue covers operating costs in year 2.
- Ticket volume, year 3
- €12M
- Evenings, year 3
- 19,094
- Venues · organizers, month 12
- 30 · 45
- Venues · organizers, year 3
- 187 · 281
BASE CASE, YEAR BY YEAR
Volume first,
then margin.
Platform revenue
Commission, plans, add-ons and Plus.
Ticket volume
What guests pay for MatchQuest evenings.
THE FULL TABLE
Every scenario,
every year.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | |||
| Ticket volume | €89k | €297k | €446k |
| Platform revenue | €8k | €34k | €51k |
| Operating costs | €120k | €200k | €260k |
| Result | −€112k | −€166k | −€209k |
| Base | |||
| Ticket volume | €367k | €1.5M | €2.8M |
| Platform revenue | €36k | €184k | €350k |
| Operating costs | €180k | €240k | €320k |
| Result | −€144k | −€56k | €30k |
| Upside | |||
| Ticket volume | €1.1M | €5.1M | €12M |
| Platform revenue | €109k | €675k | €1.6M |
| Operating costs | €250k | €340k | €480k |
| Result | −€141k | €335k | €1.1M |
| Base case | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ticket commission | €32k | €149k | €283k |
| Organizer and venue plans | €3k | €18k | €34k |
| Add-ons | €1k | €6k | €11k |
| MatchQuest Plus | €0 | €12k | €23k |
| Total | €36k | €184k | €350k |
WHAT ORCHESTRATION ADDS
Without the levers,
the base case halves.
| Base case ticket volume | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| With orchestration | €367k | €1.5M | €2.8M |
| Run by hand2 evenings × 14 guests per host instead of 3 × 20 | €171k | €695k | €1.3M |
- Same partners, same prices: only evenings per host and guests per evening change. Run by hand, each host produces 47% of the volume.
THE ASSUMPTIONS
Every input,
in plain sight.
| Month-12 run rate | Conservative | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venues hosting their own evenings | 10 | 20 | 30 |
| Evenings per venue and month | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Organizers | 15 | 30 | 45 |
| Evenings per organizer and month | 1.5 | 2 | 3 |
| Paid guests per evening | 16 | 20 | 24 |
| Average ticket | €22 | €25 | €28 |
| Tickets kept after refunds | 92% | 94% | 95% |
| Blended commission after betaAcross the 18 / 12 / 8 / 5% plans | 9% | 10% | 11% |
| Organizers on a paid plan (avg €30) | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Venues on a paid plan (avg €45) | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Evenings with a boost (€9) | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Plus subscribersShare of monthly paid tickets, from year 2 | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Partners in year 2 · year 3Multiple of the month-12 count | ×1.8 · ×2.7 | ×2.2 · ×4.2 | ×2.6 · ×6.2 |
| Operating costs, years 1–3 | €120k · €200k · €260k | €180k · €240k · €320k | €250k · €340k · €480k |
- Year 1 ramps linearly to the month-12 counts. Months 1–6 run on beta pricing (5% commission, no plans, add-ons or Plus).
- Year 3 in the base and upside cases implies more venues than our Berlin beachhead and assumes a second city starts. Card processing, refunds handling and taxes are outside platform revenue.
THE FUNDING ASK
€180k for twelve months
of Berlin proof.
| Option | Amount | Runway | Covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum pilot | €120,000 | 9–12 months | Legal readiness · Part-time design support · Limited marketing · One partner-acquisition role at lean pay |
| Recommended Berlin launchRecommended | €180,000 | About 12 months | Legal reserve and templates · Design and illustration support · Steady guest marketing · Stable partner acquisition for venues and organizers |
| Accelerated launch | €250,000 | 12–15 months | Broader marketing · More contractor capacity · Pilot evening support on site · Second-city preparation |
Where the money goes
Legal readiness, partner acquisition and guest marketing in Berlin. The product is built; the founder carries engineering, and current running costs are €190–560 a month.
WHEN WE WOULD CHANGE COURSE
The conservative case
is a signal, not a plan.
- If pilot evenings don’t reach positive contribution for the venue, we change the format before we add partners.
- If a host’s effort doesn’t fall from the first to the third evening, orchestration isn’t doing its job yet.
- If fewer than one in four guests book again within 60 days, we fix the follow-up before we spend on acquisition.
- If evenings only work with the founder in the room, we don’t scale them.
READ ON